Fifth Quarter 2025: Analysis of Oregon's road win over Iowa

 

On a day where Oregon was without its top wide receiver after Dakorien Moore suffered an undisclosed injury in practice this week — and the Ducks were also not at full strength with offensive tackle Alex Harkey questionable heading into the game and tight end Kenyon Sadiq ruled out pregame — the Ducks were going to have to rely on their depth more than they had all season long. Add in that the weather was very similar to what the Ducks faced two weeks ago at home against Wisconsin, and the game was set up to be a slugfest that would resemble old-fashioned Big Ten football. Three yards and a puddle splash at a time looked to be the recipe that we would all see.

Dan Lanning called it a night of “strength in numbers,” and he wasn’t wrong. Oregon out-Iowa’ed Iowa on the ground (261–140 rushing yards), squeezed hidden yards out of special teams, and, when all the oxygen left Kinnick with 1:51 remaining, executed a cold-blooded two-minute drill so Atticus Sappington could “bang it through” for an 18–16 win. 

Today in the Fifth Quarter, the anatomy of a road escape — by unit, with grades.

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Offense — B+

This was trench ball by design and by necessity. In wind and rain, against an Iowa defense that entered allowing 2.6 yards per rush and 83.9 per game, Oregon ripped off 261 rushing yards at 7.3 per carry and owned first down (7.3 yards per first-down play). The opening drive’s three straight passes misread the night, but Will Stein pivoted immediately: heavy personnel, dual-back looks (Zach Grace leading for Jordon Davison), and a renewed commitment to gap-scheme runs with Jamari Johnson kicking out and receivers cracking down.

The backs ran like the game plan depended on it — because it did. Noah Whittington (17–118) and Dierre Hill Jr. (7–45, TD) churned through arm tackles; Davison’s eight totes (52) provided the mid-series body blows. The single most explosive play, ironically, came from the quarterback: Dante Moore’s designed keeper for 49 flipped the field and the third-quarter script, putting Iowa in conflict and setting up Sappington’s third-quarter field goal. Oregon finished 4-of-5 on power rushing and got only 8% of runs stuffed, a testament to line displacement against an elite front.

Short-game passing was pragmatic: Moore went 9-of-10 on throws under five yards and hit the one he absolutely had to — the man-beater seam out to Malik Benson (24 yards) on the winning drive after Lanning and Moore caught Iowa in one-high. That was the trust throw Lanning pointed to: “If I get one high, here’s where I’m going.”

PFF backs up the eye test in the trenches. Emmanuel Pregnon graded as one of Oregon’s top linemen (run-block north of 80), Isaiah World posted a strong pass-pro mark, and Iapani “Poncho” Laloulu turned in one of the better center pass-pro grades while clearing interior lanes. Johnson’s in-line blocking showed up both on split-zone and insert variations.

It wasn’t perfect. The Moore first-quarter interception wiped a red-zone chance, the 3-of-10 on third down reflected a long-yardage diet created by a handful of negative plays and a costly fourth-quarter hold, and receiver attrition (Gary Bryant Jr. left after a 22-yard play; Moore and Sadiq were out) narrowed the call sheet. But the offense answered the identity question on a night built for mud: 63% of the sack-adjusted yards came on the ground, and the last possession combined tempo, time-out management and a quarterback who was “lights out in that drive,” as Lanning put it.

Key players (offense): Whittington, Hill Jr., Davison, Moore, Pregnon, World, Laloulu, Jamari Johnson, Benson.

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Defense — A-

Hold an Iowa offense to 4.6 yards per play, 3.3 per rush, and 10 completions — in Kinnick, in a weather game — and you’ve done your job. Outside of the late go-ahead march (12 plays, 93 yards), Oregon’s defense controlled the script with disciplined edges and interior fits that forced Kirk Ferentz’s group to stack threes and fours. Through 35 rushing attempts, Oregon didn’t allow a run longer than nine yards; fits at the point of attack were measurably better than two weeks ago.

The front seven’s spine carried the night. Jerry Mixon (13 tackles) played like a veteran between the tackles; Teitum Tuioti and Bryce Boettcher each notched sacks on timely pressures, and Matayo Uiagalelei repeatedly compressed the pocket even without a sack in the book. The night’s biggest defensive swing came from Brandon Finney, who put his helmet on the ball to force Kaden Wetjen’s fumble; Bear Alexander pounced. That takeaway erased a red-zone possession and flipped expected points in a one-score game — exactly what Lanning meant by, “Those are big moments.”

If there’s a nit, it’s the middle-of-field coverage — a recurring theme that reappeared in the fourth quarter. Iowa’s explosives were concentrated: 40 to TE Drew Vonnahme on a seam that caught the safeties peeking and 38 to Jacob Gill earlier off a linebacker matchup. Iowa also went 3-for-4 on fourth down, including the 4th-and-3 throw to Vander Zee that extended the final touchdown drive. That’s situational defense Oregon will want back.

Still, the macro shows a winning performance: 5-of-13 on third down allowed, two sacks, four TFLs, one takeaway, and a run defense that held up without Devon Jackson and against a quarterback who is a designed-run threat. PFF’s top-end grades reflected that: Ify Obidegwu led the secondary in coverage, Uiagalelei graded well as a rusher, and Tuioti’s overall impact popped. As Lanning said of Mixon and the group: “We trust him; he plays winning football.”

Key players (defense): Mixon, Tuioti, Boettcher, Uiagalelei, Finney, Alexander, Obidegwu.

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Special Teams — A

Oregon stole points and, more quietly, stole field position all night. Start with the obvious: Atticus Sappington 3-for-3 with makes from 46 before half, mid-third to make it 15–7, and the game-winner from 39 with seven seconds left. He described the moment as, “Focus on this kick, breathe, got it.” Lanning added, “Can’t say enough good things about Atticus… ice in your veins in a moment like that.”

But the details stacked up, too. James Ferguson-Reynolds punted with intent — directional balls that neutralized Wetjen and a late fair catch at the Iowa 7 when distance wasn’t the priority but pinning was. Kick-coverage lanes stayed clean in gusts and drizzle, and Oregon even got the razor-thin edge at the start via Iowa’s catastrophic snap over the punter’s head for a safety. That’s not a forced play in the stat book, but it is the product of a messy-conditions night where the team that executes the mundane usually wins.

Even the end-game detail — the squib that ate clock and forced awkward handling — earned a hat tip from Lanning: “Even, nobody is gonna credit the squib kick there at the end… our specialists played really well today.”

Key players (special teams): Sappington, Ferguson-Reynolds, the punt/kick coverage units (contain on Wetjen), operation crew on the makes.

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Coaching — A-

Two things can be true: the first series skewed pass-heavy in a rain game, and the staff’s game-long adjustments were on point. Stein shifted to a varied run menu (split zone, insert, counter with a fullback lead, QB keep tagged off formation), rode hot hands, and leaned on tempo sparingly to win leverage downs (Oregon’s first-down success: 7.3 yards per play). Tosh Lupoi’s group rotated the defensive line early (Tionne Gray and Matt Johnson logged useful snaps) to save legs for the fourth quarter, and the fits held.

The most important coaching sequence, though, came in the last two minutes. Lanning’s two-minute philosophy — don’t burn timeouts outside of :30 unless you’re spending them to keep the whole field open — showed up exactly as he described it: “We knew where we were going to utilize our timeouts … reserve one if we needed it for a field goal … so we could throw the ball in the middle of the field and still have an option there.” Oregon didn’t sub to prevent defensive subs, called repeater concepts, and hunted the right coverage for Benson. That’s teaching transferring to Saturday.

Critiques? A conservative punt choice near long-field-goal fringe (Lanning admitted, “I probably should have tried the kick earlier”) and the lingering Middle Of Field matchup leaks to tight ends remain on the correction list. Penalties (5 for 57) included a late hold that nearly proved costly. But zoom out: the staff out-planned a top-five defense on the ground, managed roster attrition with clean personnel packages, and won the margins that decide Kinnick games.

Key figures (coaching): Lanning’s end-game management and message discipline (“Coach, breathe” coming back at him tells you culture is sticky), Stein’s run-game variety/QB keeper timing, Lupoi’s DL rotation and pressure sequencing.

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Final Word

“If it’s a four-quarter fight, we can do a four-quarter fight,” Lanning said. Oregon did exactly that — with a bruising run game, a disciplined front, and a kicker who turned a soaked sideline into a quiet flight home. It wasn’t pretty, but in November it rarely is. Oregon 18, Iowa 16 — a résumé win built the old-fashioned way. Minnesota is next.