Wednesday War Room: Why Oregon Football Isn’t Sweating Signing Day — Even After Coordinator Departures

 

DRAMA FREE SIGNING DAY?

I know that one of the worries when two coordinators both leave a one and two days before early signing day that the first thought is ‘what about the recruits?’ The answer? There is really nothing to worry about in this instance.

The Oregon staff does not have a single coach recruiting a player or a position. Every coach is involved with every recruit. Look back at the IG soties of Oregon players and coaches wishing happy birthday to some recruits. That is an example of the recruitment being about making the recruits feel like they are part of a family with everyone. Most importantly – Dan Lanning is personally involved in the recruitment of every prospect.

While in the ‘old’ days, we used to hear people on DSA say that players should commit to a university, not a coach, in this day and age, players commit to a ‘program’ and the program is embodied in its head coach at Oregon. I have heard and expect that every Oregon commit is going to sign tomorrow.

The other thing to keep in mind here is that this is about a lot more than the ‘National Letter of Intent’ that the players signed in the past. In most – if not all – of the cases currently, there is already a financial aspect that is laid out. Given where Tosh Lupoi and Will Stein are going, there are not a lot of high level recruits that are going to follow to Cal and Kentucky respectively. Oregon QB commit Bryson Beaver already told Adam Gorney specifically that he wishes Stein well, but that he is signing with Oregon.

DEFENSIVE COORDINATOR SEARCH

As Matt Zenitz, myself, and most people who know the program have said in one place or another, we don’t expect to need to fire up and Defensive Coordinator Hot Board or any other long list of potential candidates. The list is singular: Chris Hampton. He has called a defense before as a coordinator and has been with Oregon for three seasons now. He is the next man up.

The bigger question is what route the staff goes for a position replacement? The answer is that they will be looking at someone to coach OLB and EDGE players – and this is an area in which the Ducks could see a drop if the right hire is not made. Lupoi has led the recruitment of a lot of the elite edges that have committed to Oregon and is a force on the recruiting trail.

Yesterday in the OC article I mentioned that there was no shortage of candidates interested and qualified for the offensive coordinator spot with Oregon – well, the number of really good linebacker coaches that are exceptional recruiters is even longer. So long that I am not even going to hazard guesses right now about who might be on the list.

CRAZY CAROUSEL

With Kalani Sitake and Penn State flirting over the past week, we see that there are a lot of things that happen in the background long before we hear publicly. Yes, some of my friends at BYU had mentioned it – but they also said he ‘turned down’ the Oregon job which is wholly and factually inaccurate. He was never offered the job – not even conditionally. His interview was not so much about actually getting the job as getting better commitment from BYU donors for football and that lack of commitment is what led him to look at Penn State. BYU is heavily invested in basketball. Sitake saw how Texas Tech started investing in everything and knows that elite frontline players are not enough to get past the first round of the playoffs – you need elite depth and BYU does not have the kind of depth needed for a deep run.

This flirtation might get him a better commitment, but it shows just how crazy the carousel is getting when Sitake was looking at Penn State and vice versa.

CHRIS HENRY?

I know that some have teased the possibility of him flipping recently, but a lot of that is based on speculation that Hartline might be leaving Ohio State for a head coaching gig. The issue with that is that Ohio State is not stupid; they recruit very similarly to Oregon and their recruits have also made commitments to their school and have financial reasons to stick.

That does not mean that the intel on Henry flipping was bad – I just don’t know how realistic it is for Oregon to get Henry this late in the cycle without making a massive adjustment to the structure of their NIL for the 2026 class as well as existing receivers. I know Dan Lanning and the rest of the staff will continue to see about the potential, just not sure if it is realistic.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

The Ducks moved up to No. 5 in the College Football Playoff rankings and that is significant on many levels.

First, this virtually guarantees Oregon gets at least a home game in the first round of the playoffs. The three teams just after Oregon (Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma) do not play this weekend and there is no world where any of those teams jump Oregon. Only two teams (No. 9 Alabama, No. 11 BYU) behind Oregon play this weekend – and even if they win – the plausibility of either jumping over Oregon seems to be unrealistic. Maybe if Alabama blew the doors off of Georgia by 35 points, someone could make an argument that they should jump up, but that would be quite the task.

I think every fan is excited about the potential for a playoff game at Autzen. The atmosphere would be as good as we have ever seen in Autzen and bring the kind of electricity and juice that make the home playoff games such a fun thing for college football.

But there is still a path to a first round bye. If Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC Championship and BYU blows out Texas Tech, there will be a potential for Oregon to get that No. 4 seed and a first round bye leaving Oregon facing the winner of the 5/12 matchup. Do I think that is likely? No. But sometimes college football is unpredictable.

Personally, I am hoping for a home playoff game because I just cannot wait to see what that atmosphere looks like.

All for now!