Wednesday War Room: Full preview of Oregon at Washington ~ Duck Sports Central

Saturday in Seattle is the kind of checkpoint that defines a season. Oregon (10–1, 7–1) just climbed to No. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings, has ripped through November with a bruising run game and suffocating defense, and now walks into a rivalry road game against a Washington team that has quietly built one of the most balanced offenses in the league.

Washington (8–3, 5–3) scores 35.5 points per game, averages 426.5 yards of offense, and has the statistical profile of a team far more dangerous than its record suggests. The Huskies are at home, healthier than they’ve been in weeks, and riding a quarterback who looks nothing like the guy Oregon sacked 10 times in his first start a year ago.

Vegas is treating this like a serious test, not a coronation.
The line opened at Oregon –6.5 and has stayed there through Tuesday night, with a total of 52.5—numbers that scream “fourth-quarter game,” not blowout.

Layer in the rivalry, Husky Stadium’s noise, and Oregon’s razor-thin CFP margin for error, and this feels less like a normal road trip and more like a full-season audit in one afternoon.

Oregon offense vs. Washington defense — Can the Ducks stay on schedule?

Oregon’s efficiency machine, with some injury asterisks

Oregon’s offense has been about down-to-down cruelty more than fireworks:

39.3 points per game
471.8 yards per game
7.2 yards per play
50% on third down
40-of-45 in the red zone, 33 TDs

Dante Moore has quietly driven all of it: 72.6% completions, 2,675 yards, 24 TD, 6 INT. The ball is coming out on time, the shot plays are selective, and the Ducks rarely live in long-yardage.

The complicating factor is the health sheet.

WR Dakorien Moore (443 yds, 15.8 per catch, 3 TD) — still in the “murmurs” category. If he returns, he changes the geometry of the field instantly.
WR Gary Bryant Jr. (25–299–4 TD) — also uncertain after the ankle issue.
Both starting tackles (Alex Harkey, Isaiah World) missed time vs. USC.
Center Poncho Laloulu left that game with an ankle, and third tackle Gernorris Wilson has missed multiple weeks.
Charlie Pickard and Fox Crader handled themselves impressively against USC’s front, but this is another week where Oregon may not have its best five on the field together.

That matters against a Washington defense built around numbers and waves, not one or two stars.

Washington’s front: pressure by committee, depth by design

Washington’s defense allows just 304.0 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play, with:

103.5 rushing yards allowed per game (3.5 yards per carry)
200.5 passing yards allowed per game
25 sacks, 58 TFL

This isn’t a unit that smothers you like Oregon’s, but it’s structurally sound and disruptive in pockets.

Key pieces up front:

ED Jacob Lane (7.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) and ED Zach Durfee (3.0 sacks) are the primary edge disruptors.
Interior defenders Anterio Thompson, Elinneus Davis, Bryce Butler and Armon Parker rotate heavily; collectively, Washington has 45.0 TFL and 19.0 sacks from its defensive front group alone.
At linebacker, Alex McLaughlin (81 tackles) and Deven Bryant (59 tackles) do most of the clean-up work.

Advanced grading and film both point to the same thing: Washington’s front isn’t loaded with one superstar, but it has a lot of playable bodies. Some of their flashiest individual grades come from rotational edges and young linemen with limited snap counts; that’s useful depth, but it’s not the same as being asked to hold up for 60 snaps against Oregon’s tempo. The guys who will decide this game are the ones who have actually carried that volume.

The matchup within the matchup:

Oregon’s run game
- 228.6 rush yards per game
- 6.1 yards per carry
- Four backs over 4.6 per carry (Whittington, Davison, Hill, Limar)
Washington’s run defense
- 103.5 rush yards allowed
- 3.5 yards per carry
- Strong tackle production from the second level

If Oregon wins on early downs with wide zone, duo, and QB keepers, it can force Washington into predictable coverages and stress the Huskies’ communication in the back end.

Washington’s back end and Oregon’s passing answers

On the perimeter, Washington brings size and length:

CB Ephesians Prysock is a long, physical corner whose coverage metrics and grading both hold up over a true starter’s workload.
S Alex McLaughlin (81 tackles) and S Makell Esteen (48 tackles, 2 INT) do a lot of the heavy lifting in the middle.
DB Rahshawn Clark and CB Tacario Davis have flashed big-time coverage upside, but again, some of the best metrics come in limited sample sizes.

This is where Oregon’s depth at the skill spots matters:

TE Kenyon Sadiq (36–479–8 TD) — the matchup piece in seams and play-action.
WR Malik Benson (26–424–3 TD) — vertical and intermediate isolation.
WR Jeremiah McClellan (22–319–2 TD) — possession and third-down reliability.
RBs Whittington, Davison, Hill Jr. — all factors in the pass game as outlet and screen options.

If Moore and Bryant remain out, Oregon loses some “win-instantly” speed, but the offense has proven it can run through tight ends and backs and still score in the high 30s. If even one of those receivers returns at close to full strength, Washington’s safeties will have to cover a lot more grass.

Washington offense vs. Oregon defense — Dual-threat stress vs. structure

Demond Williams Jr. 2.0

This isn’t the same Demond Williams Jr. Oregon saw in his first career start.

The sophomore has turned a once-chaotic profile into a fully realized dual threat:

Passing: 2,821 yards, 71.5% completions, 20 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: 760 yards on 121 attempts (4.7 per carry), 6 TD

He averages 247.4 passing yards per game and adds another 51.6 rushing, and Washington builds the offense around his ability to stretch both the field and the edges.

A year ago, Oregon sacked him 10 times by winning one-on-one and collapsing a static pocket. This version of Williams is more patient, more comfortable with quick game and RPOs, and more willing to take the underneath throw instead of drifting into pressure. The stat line shows it; the film confirms it.

Washington’s run game: more than just QB scrambles

Washington isn’t a “finesse passing” operation; the numbers say the run game is real:

170.0 rushing yards per game
4.7 yards per carry
29 rushing TD

The back rotation is legitimately deep:

RB Jonah Coleman: 651 rush yards, 4.8 per carry, 14 rush TD
RB Adam Mohammed: 412 rush yards, 4.6 per carry, 5 TD
RB Jordan Washington: only 23 carries, but 9.0 per carry and true explosive speed

Analytics and grading both like Coleman and Mohammed over full workloads, and Washington’s interior line—players like John Mills, Drew Azzopardi, and Geirean Hatchett—has graded out well in the run game across real snap volume. Washington’s highest-graded backs and linemen also happen to be the ones carrying the most responsibility, not just tiny sample darlings.

The challenge for Oregon: Washington’s RPO/zone game can turn a 2nd-and-7 into 3rd-and-2 with a single well-timed pull read or quick slant. That’s how the Huskies maintain their 51.9% third-down conversion rate—one of the best in the country.

Oregon’s defense: structure, depth, and “no cheap yards”

The Ducks’ defensive profile is as good as it looks:

14.9 points allowed per game
248.7 yards allowed per game
- 103.0 rush
- 145.7 pass
Opponents completing just 51.9% of passes
Only 10 passing TD allowed in 11 games

Up front, Oregon can rotate waves of disruption:

Teitum Tuioti (11.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks) and Matayo Uiagalelei (8.5 TFL, 5.0 sacks) off the edge.
Bear Alexander (6.0 TFL) and A’Mauri Washington (3.5 TFL) anchoring the interior.
Jerry Mixon (44 tackles, 3.0 TFL) and Blake Purchase, Nasir Wyatt, Tionne Gray as part of a deep pressure package.

That front has generated 51.0 TFL and 19.0 sacks, but the real story is how little help they need. Oregon doesn’t have to blitz recklessly to affect the pocket, which is essential against a quarterback who punishes vacated zones.

On the back end, Bryce Boettcher (94 tackles) and Dillon Thieneman (57 tackles, 1 INT) stabilize the middle, while corners like Aaron Flowers, Ify Obidegwu, Na’eem Offord, and Jadon Canady have helped keep big plays in front of them. Oregon’s coverage metrics and grading line up with the box score: the Ducks simply don’t give up easy explosives.

The key tension here:

Washington wants to live in 2nd-and-5 and hit shot plays off the run game.
Oregon wants to drag them into 3rd-and-7 and let the front rush within its structure.

If the Ducks keep Williams from turning broken plays into chunk runs, they can make Washington earn every yard.

Situational football — Third downs, red zone, and the “drive tax”

This game might be decided less by the total yardage and more by how many mistake-free drives each team can assemble.

Third down

Washington offense: 67-of-129 (51.9%)
Washington defense: 57-of-146 allowed (39.0%)
Oregon offense: 66-of-132 (50.0%)
Oregon defense: 52-of-153 allowed (34.0%)

Both teams are elite extending drives; Oregon is slightly better at ending them.

Red zone

Washington offense: 48 trips, 44 scores, 36 TD
Washington defense: 36 trips, 30 scores, 19 TD
Oregon offense: 45 trips, 40 scores, 33 TD
Oregon defense: 22 trips, 20 scores, 16 TD

Oregon’s defense doesn’t give you many red-zone chances, but when teams get there, they often need three downs of perfect execution to find the end zone. Washington’s offense is built to finish—but Washington’s defense has given up more TDs than a unit with its yardage profile would like.

Think of it as a “drive tax”:

Washington’s offense pays a tax in the form of playing a top-five defense on the other side.
Washington’s defense pays a tax in the form of Oregon’s elite red-zone efficiency and run game.

Whoever steals a possession—via turnover, fourth-down stop, or special teams—probably converts it into the decisive margin.

Special Teams — Hidden yards in a hostile stadium

On paper, the units are closer than you might expect.

Oregon

Punting: 42.0 average, excellent net, only 3 touchbacks on 26 punts.
Punt returns: 11.96 yards per return (Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr.), with an 85-yard TD on the season.
Field goals: 11-for-15 overall; Atticus Sappington is 11-for-14 and comfortable from mid-range.

Washington

Punting: 39.8 average, but net of just 33.8—a lot of returnable balls.
Punt returns: Denzel Boston (13.0 yards/return, long of 78) is a legitimate threat.
Kick returns: Adam Mohammed averages 25.6 yards, with a long of 41.
Field goals: Grady Gross is 9-for-12, with a long of 51; reliable in a typical game, but not quite an automatic weapon.

Advanced grading on special teams shows Washington with a long list of contributors—linebackers, safeties, and tight ends who play on multiple units. But, again, some of the prettiest numbers come from players with 10–20 snaps in the kicking game. Oregon’s core specialists have carried heavy workloads and held up over the sample that matters most: nearly an entire season.

In a loud stadium, the edge might belong to the team that can steal hidden yards in the return game without making the back-breaking mistake. Oregon has been extremely safe with the ball; Washington has the more explosive individual returners.

Intangibles, rivalry, and the moment

This isn’t just another ranked-team road trip. It’s Oregon–Washington with stakes layered on top of stakes.

For Washington:

Playoff hopes are gone, but a nine-win regular season with a rivalry upset over a top-three Oregon team would redefine their narrative.
They’re getting healthier: Denzel Boston trending toward full strength, Jonah Coleman playing through his earlier bumps, and a defensive front that’s mostly intact.

For Oregon:

At No. 3 in the CFP rankings, the Ducks are in position but not safe. Any loss now is a referendum, not just a setback.
This is one of the last chances to prove they can take their November identity—run game, physical defense, situational discipline—on the road into a genuinely hostile environment.

You can feel it in the way Oregon’s veterans have talked all month about composure, details, and “earning your right to play meaningful games in late November.” Road rivalry games like this are exactly what they mean.

Prediction — Oregon 31, Washington 24

From the first series, this feels like a game where Washington’s offense lands some early punches. Demond Williams Jr. is too dynamic not to; expect at least one extended first-half drive built on QB keepers and option looks that stress Oregon’s edges. Denzel Boston and Dezmen Roebuck will win some isolation routes, and Washington will probably hit a shot play off play-action when the Ducks overcommit to the box.

But over four quarters, Oregon’s structural advantages start to stack.

On offense, the Ducks have too many ways to stay ahead of the chains. Whether or not Dakorien Moore or Gary Bryant Jr. return, the combination of Whittington, Davison, Hill Jr., and Limar behind a deep offensive line should let Oregon lean into its identity: six yards on inside zone, eight yards on pin-pull, then a tight end seam or deep crosser when safeties start triggering downhill. Washington’s front will land some negative plays, but it’s hard to see them winning early downs consistently against this run game.

Defensively, Oregon’s biggest challenge is maintaining rush-lane discipline. Once the Ducks settle into how Washington wants to use Williams in the QB run game, the pass rush becomes more about constricting the pocket than hunting highlight sacks. Oregon’s corners and safeties have earned the benefit of the doubt; they’ve handled every passing challenge on the schedule so far. If they force Washington to drive methodically instead of living on explosives, the Huskies’ impressive third-down numbers will be battling uphill against the best defense they’ve seen since Michigan-caliber fronts.

Special teams and Husky Stadium’s noise keep this from getting out of hand. A long return, a pin-punt, or a missed field goal on either side could easily swing seven points. The Vegas numbers—Oregon –6.5, total 52.5—are a good reflection of reality: expect a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter with both teams in the mid-20s.

In that final stretch, Oregon’s depth and November identity become the difference. The Ducks have been built for exactly this script: close late, ball in their hands, and a chance to close the door with a long, demoralizing drive that leans on their backs and offensive line. Washington will score enough to make it tense. Oregon will execute enough to keep its place in the playoff bracket.

Oregon survives a full-field rivalry test and stay on track in the CFP race, while Washington reminds everyone that the gap between “contender” and “spoiler” in this league is smaller than the rankings make it look.

Wednesday War Room: Full preview of Oregon at Washington