DSC Inside Read: A 3-2-1 look ahead to Washington

 

Today in the Inside Read: 3–2–1 on USC, Washington, and what’s next for Oregon’s defense

Oregon’s 42–27 win over USC was equal parts statement and stress test. The Ducks leaned on a patchwork offensive line, rode Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison late, and watched the defense wrestle with yet another elite receiver group before closing the door in the fourth quarter.

Now comes Washington: a balanced attack similar to USC, with a quarterback in Demond Williams Jr. who looks nothing like the freshman Oregon sacked 10 times in his first start a year ago, and a run game that forces you to be right in your fits every snap and to stay disciplined on the edge due to the threat of Williams' legs.

Here’s your 3–2–1: three things we learned vs. USC, two big questions for Washington, and one prediction about how the Duck defense shows up in Seattle.

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3 Things We Learned vs. USC (and why they matter for Washington)

1. Oregon’s offensive identity is portable — if the OL holds together

Against USC, Oregon’s offense looked less like the weather-constrained versions from Wisconsin and Iowa and more like the balanced machine Will Stein wants it to be:

• 179 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry

• No sacks allowed on 30 Dante Moore attempts

• Long, identity drives when the game demanded answers in the fourth quarter

The twist, of course, was who made that happen. Oregon finished the night down:

• Both starting tackles at various points (Alex Harkey, Isaiah World)

• Starting center Poncho Laloulu (ankle)

• Their third-best tackle, Gernorris Wilson, already out coming in

And yet Charlie Pickard and Fox Crader looked more like seasoned vets than emergency plugs. The protection wasn’t perfect, but it was functional, and the run game still moved bodies off the ball when Oregon absolutely had to extend the lead.

Why that matters for Washington:

The Huskies are not a passive front. Jacob Lane (7.5 sacks, 5 QBH) and Zach Durfee (3.0 sacks) give them multiple edges who can win 1-on-1, and Washington’s defense has 45 TFL and 19 sacks on the year. This is a front that can stress communication, especially if Oregon is again leaning on its “second wave” OL.

If Oregon can replicate what it did against USC — staying out of obvious passing downs (they were in passing downs on just 23% of snaps vs USC) and keeping the playbook open — the Ducks can keep Washington’s rush from teeing off. If not, that 19-sack number for UW could start climbing.

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2. Oregon’s run defense is playoff-caliber. Pass defense is still the stress point.

On paper, allowing 330 passing yards and 4 TD to USC doesn’t scream “dominant outing.” But zoom out:

• The Ducks held USC to 52 rushing yards on 28 carries (1.9 ypc).

• Oregon created two crucial interceptions (Canady, Obidegwu) and forced long fields often enough to keep the Trojans chasing.

• Advanced metrics leaned toward control: Oregon posted 42 offensive successes vs. 19 for USC and forced USC into more passing downs and lower leverage situations.

This is the profile of a defense that:

• Strangles your run game,

• Lives with some explosives through the air, and

• Tries to win in the red zone and on “gotta-have-it” downs.

USC’s receivers — Lemon, Lane, Hines — are as good as any trio in the country. Washington’s group is different, but the stress is similar:

• Denzel Boston: 52 catches, 730 yards, 8 TD (14.0 per catch)

• Dezmen Roebuck: 39 for 527 and 6 TD

• Omari Evans: 17.9 per catch, true vertical threat

Paired with Demond Williams completing 71.5% of his passes at 9.0 YPA, this is another top-flight aerial attack. But unlike USC, Washington is perfectly willing to hammer the ball on the ground if you’re light in the box.

The bet for Oregon: keep the same run fits they showed vs. USC, accept that some windows will be hit in the passing game, and win by tightening coverage in the red zone and on third-and-medium.

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3. Oregon can win a track meet and a trench fight

USC was dangerous because they could test you vertically and horizontally on every snap. Washington is dangerous because they’re balanced:

• 170.0 rushing yards per game at 4.7 yards per carry

• 256.5 passing yards per game at 9.0 yards per attempt

• 35.55 points per game, and a 51.9% third-down conversion rate

Oregon showed against USC that they can:

• Answer scores with scores (four TD drives of 65+ yards)

• Close games out by leaning on a run game even with a depleted OL

• Survive a day when the defensive backfield isn’t at its sharpest because the front seven keeps a lid on the run and the pass rush shows up in the fourth quarter (Uiagalelei’s sack, TFLs from Washington, Mixon, Tuioti, etc.)

That versatility is exactly what you need against a Washington team that won’t panic if you take one thing away. If Oregon can force the Huskies to choose between Demond Williams’ legs and Jonah Coleman’s power on one hand, and the full passing tree on the other, they tilt the game back toward Lanning/Tuioti’s multiplicity.

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2 Big Questions Heading Into Washington Week

1. Can Oregon’s front control a two-headed run game while building a pass-rush lane plan for Demond Williams?

Last year, Oregon suffocated Williams with relentless pressure and exotic looks, sacking him 10 times in his first start. That tape is ancient history.

This version of Demond Williams:

• Has 760 gross rushing yards (568 net) at 4.7 yards per carry with 6 TD.

• Operates a heavily RPO- and QB-run-infused offense that forces edges and backers to diagnose now or be wrong.

• Is backed by Jonah Coleman (673 yards, 4.8 ypc, 14 TD) and Adam Mohammed (419 yards, 4.6 ypc, 5 TD) — meaning you can’t just play QB-centric game plans without paying for it between the tackles.

For Oregon’s front:

• Bear Alexander, A’Mauri Washington, Terrance Green, and the interior rotation have to keep Washington from living at 2nd-and-4.

• Matayo Uiagalelei, Blake Purchase, Nasir Wyatt and the edges must rush with discipline, not just violence — squeezing pockets rather than flying past landmarks and opening scramble lanes.

• Linebackers like Bryce Boettcher, Jerry Mixon, Teitum Tuioti, and safety Dillon Thieneman will be under constant eye-discipline stress with all the backfield action.

If Oregon can get Washington’s run game closer to opponent average (103.5 ypg, 3.5 ypc allowed by UW) than to Washington’s season norm of 170, they force Williams into more pure dropbacks. That’s when Lanning’s pressure packages start to look more like last year.

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2. What does Oregon’s passing game look like if the WR room and OL are still banged up?

We don’t know yet about:

• Dakorien Moore (missed three games, “tweaked knee”)

• Gary Bryant Jr. (ankle vs. Iowa)

• Poncho Laloulu (ankle vs. USC)

• The health of Harkey, World, and Gernorris Wilson as the week goes on

The good news:

• Malik Benson and Jeremiah McClellan stepped up with explosives vs USC.

• Kenyon Sadiq continues to look like a first round pick more than a complementary tight end.

• Oregon has shown it can lean into 12 and 13 personnel — with Jamari Johnson and Roger Saleapaga — to change the math in the box and simplify reads for Moore.

The bad news:

Washington’s defense is built to punish one-dimensional teams. They allow just 304.0 yards per game, have registered 19 sacks, and are opportunistic with 9 interceptions and 40 passes defended. If Oregon’s receiver room is still limited and the OL is again in musical chairs mode, it’s harder to threaten all three levels and keep UW from loading up on first and second down.

The question for Saturday: is this another game where Moore lives in the 8–12 yard window, taking what’s there and letting Sadiq, Benson, McClellan, Whittington, and Davison do the YAC work? Or can Oregon unlock a few more vertical shots to back Washington’s safeties off?

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1 Prediction: How Oregon’s Defense Performs in Seattle

We’ll save a final score pick for Wednesday. For now, let’s focus on how the Oregon defense shows up against a Washington offense that:

• Scores 35.55 points per game

• Averages 426.5 total yards (170 rush, 256.5 pass)

• Converts 52% on third down and is 36-of-48 in the red zone with 36 TDs

Here’s the call:

Oregon’s defense holds Washington under its season averages in both rushing and passing yardage, and the game is decided by how often the Ducks can force field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone.

More specifically:

• Washington finishes closer to 100–125 rushing yards than 170, with Oregon’s interior winning enough early downs to prevent the Huskies from living in 2nd-and-3.

• Demond Williams still makes plays — both on scrambles and RPO glances — but Oregon keeps him around the low 200s in passing yards, not a 300+ yard explosion.

• The Ducks generate 3–4 sacks or QB hits that function like sacks (throwaways, scrambles out of bounds) by marrying rush lane discipline with late-rotating coverage.

• In the red zone, Washington’s elite TD rate (36 TDs on 48 trips) regresses a bit. Expect at least two UW drives to stall for field goals instead of touchdowns.

You probably won’t see a repeat of last year’s 10-sack demolition of Demond Williams. He’s too seasoned, this run game is too real, and this Washington offense is more balanced.

But the version of Oregon we saw against USC — suffocating the run, living with some chunk plays through the air, and making the biggest plays in the biggest moments — translates on the road. If that defense shows up, Washington will move the ball, but they’ll have to work harder and longer for every point than they’re used to.

And in November, with everything on the line, that’s usually enough to tilt a tight game your way.