Wednesday War Room: Bye Week notes

 

LOOKING AHEAD

It’s been an intriguing few days watching the reaction to Oregon’s uneven performance last Saturday. Despite the frustration, the Ducks remain firmly in contention—ranked No. 6 in the AP poll, favored by 6.5 on the road at Iowa, and still in control of their own playoff destiny. The concern, however, is understandable. In three games against quality defenses—Penn State, Indiana, and Wisconsin—the offense has started sluggishly and needed a spark. That spark came too late in Bloomington, but Oregon still enters the stretch run at 7–1 with everything to play for.

It reminds me of Ohio State a year ago. After dropping a heartbreaker to Oregon, the Buckeyes appeared destined for a rematch in the Big Ten title game—until an unexpected loss to a Michigan team that finished just 7–5 derailed that plan. That Michigan squad wasn’t elite, but the defeat didn’t ultimately change how the CFP committee viewed Ohio State. The lesson: one imperfect performance doesn’t define a contender.

Do I think Oregon will win a national title this season? Probably not—not with the current inconsistency against top defenses. But I also don’t believe last Saturday doomed their playoff hopes. A 10–2 finish, with one loss coming to the nation’s No. 2 team, could still be enough to earn a bid.

This was never a season I circled for a championship run anyway. The offensive line was always going to need time to gel, and Dante Moore needed a full season as a starter to develop the command and confidence of a title-caliber quarterback. The offense’s early success distorted expectations, but this roster remains talented enough to reach the playoff and be dangerous once there. The key is focus—especially over the next four weeks when the tests intensify.

The encouraging part? Oregon has played with sharper focus on the road this season, and two of its toughest remaining games are away from Autzen. If the Ducks handle business in Iowa City, they’ll be well positioned to finish 10–2. A hard-earned win at Wisconsin last fall became the inflection point for the 2024 season—and this trip to Iowa might prove just as defining for 2025.

RECRUITING THOUGHTS

The impact of head coaching changes:
A lot of conversation will center on which prospects Oregon might try to flip from programs like Penn State, UCLA, Florida, or especially LSU. There’s some reason for optimism there, but it’s still early. Signing Day is a long way off, and LSU in particular is likely to land an elite recruiter—if Lane Kiffin wants that job, it’s probably his—and whoever takes over will have every chance to hold on to the players they value most.

Where I’d keep a closer eye is the transfer portal. That’s where the real opportunity lies for Oregon and other top programs this cycle. There will be talented players who suddenly don’t fit new systems, or who want a fresh start in a more stable environment. Those are the hidden gems—the kinds of additions that can quietly change the trajectory of a roster.

Recruiting nuggets

-          Oregon has finally offered instate running back Mamarcus Bell. He is committed to Utah and right now nothing appears to be changing, but this is largely related to the reality that Oregon offered very late int eh process and they really have not pushed hard yet. If the Ducks do start to make a push and get him on campus, it would be very surprising if he ended up anywhere other than Oregon. The Ducks do want a second back in 2026 for a variety of reasons. We know that Noah Whittington will finish his eligibility; it seems likely that Makhi Hughes transfers, and it would not be surprising if at least one other running back decided to transfer.

Bell fits the mold of one of those guys that can come in, work hard, and start to see some action in years two and three. Very similar to Jayden Limar and I think that the staff would love to have someone like that in the fold.

-          Max Torres reported that Jax Tanner also visited for the Wisconsin game (he was not on our pregame list). He is a BYU commit and is definitely taking a religious mission, so even if the Ducks do get a flip here, it will be the 2028 season before he steps foot onto campus. I know that they staff want to add at least one more interior OL type (Tanner is a Center/Guard at the next level), so we will see if the Ducks decide to push hard.

-          Also on campus this past weekend was Immanuel Iheanacho. Having him and Tommy Tofi around with Tanner really helped – and there is a reason that Jackson Powers-Johnson was in town – aside from the break for the Raiders bye week allowed. Oregon’s first Rimington Award winner was able to spend time with Tanner (they have a close relationship) as well as the two committed offensive line prospects and that time was very powerful.

-          I wouldn’t get too much into thinking that the departure of Brian Kelly is going to lead to a flip of Deuce Geralds or a transfer from DJ Pickett. Geralds closest relationship at LSU is interim coach Frank Wilson – the man who coached Geralds’ father. I would watch more about where Wilson goes to see about Geralds. As for Pickett, I would think he sticks with LSU and does not enter the portal; but watch where DB coach Corey Raymond goes, because that could also be very telling.

 

DAN LANNING THOUGHTS

Since LSU’s name keeps surfacing, let’s address it directly. I don’t expect Dan Lanning to be seriously tied to any openings this cycle. I could be wrong, but everything he’s said about keeping his family rooted—his wife and kids not having to transfer—feels genuine, not performative. And the truth is, he already has one of the best setups in the country.

Look around at the climate elsewhere. At Penn State, ten wins isn’t enough. At LSU, failing to win a conference or national title within four years puts you on the hot seat. Booster influence is a given everywhere, Oregon included—but at some programs, the sheer volume of powerful voices makes the job nearly impossible. Unless a coach can align every booster behind a single vision (and few can, though Lanning might be one), success in the NIL and transfer-portal era becomes far more fragile.

Lanning knows LSU well—his former boss Nick Saban built part of his legend there—but he also knows what comes with it. Right now, he has all the resources, autonomy, and opportunity to win at the highest level without the chaos of unrealistic expectations.

And that’s the point. The coaching carousel has created a kind of self-inflicted churn. The best coaches are realizing that chasing the “next big job” can become its own form of career sabotage. The truly smart ones are staying where the foundation is strong. For the rest, the only path forward may look a lot like Oregon’s—find an elite coordinator who can build, and then give him the tools and patience to do it.

That said, some schools will still land strong hires amid the chaos. James Franklin will get another chance. So will Billy Napier and Brian Kelly. Ed Orgeron seems ready for another shot, too. But the real frenzy hasn’t even started.

Buckle up.