Wednesday War Room: Previewing Oregon State at Oregon

 

The Setup

Oregon returns to Autzen for a rivalry game that, as Dan Lanning put it, “means a lot to a lot of people… state rights… 129 years that this rivalry series existed.” He added, “It’s gonna be great to be back in Autzen with our fans… our players are excited about it.” Oregon is a 35.5-point favorite and 3–0 behind an efficient offense and a swarming, turnover-friendly defense. Oregon State (0–3) has shown flashes—especially in the vertical passing game—but enters searching for consistency at the line of scrimmage and in situational football.

Two personnel notes color the week: RB Noah Whittington remains questionable (“to be determined,” Lanning said), and there’s potential that WR Dakorien Moore could miss this game after being dinged in practice. Depth at both spots has been a strength for Oregon, but those are significant touchpoints for game planning.

Lanning also welcomed the week’s added meaning as the program honors Phil Knight and Bill Bowerman: “The jerseys are super impressive and there is a whole lot of meaning… it wasn’t just about Phil, it’s about that partnership… and how that grew into an unbelievable brand.”

---

What Oregon Wants the Game to Be

On offense: Oregon wants to live on-schedule and let Will Stein keep the menu wide open. Dante Moore has been ruthlessly efficient (73.7% completions, 197.3 rating, 7 TD, 1 INT), repeatedly converting in long yardage. Lanning praised his QB’s poise: “One of the hardest things to do… is convert third and 8, third and 10, third and 11. That two-minute drive right before half is really impressive.” The Ducks average 256.3 pass yds/gm on just 18.7 completions—explosive and economical.

On the ground, the Ducks have layered backs with distinct roles: Jayden Limar (145 rush yds, 3 TD), Dierre Hill Jr. (161 yds, 2 TD; long 66) and Jordon Davison (short-yardage power, red-zone hammer). If Whittington plays, he’s averaged 79.5 yds/gm in two games (11.4 per carry) and supercharges the inside/outside stretch game. Even without him, Lanning likes the room: “We’ve got a lot of guys that can play winning football… Dierre’s had explosive runs… Jordon has been really good in the red area… and unbelievable blocks.”

On defense: Oregon wants to reset the standard at the line after a choppy finish at Northwestern. Lanning was blunt: “Still disappointed… we didn’t win the line of scrimmage on first down on either side of the ball consistently enough.” Expect emphasis on early-down run fits, then squeezing OSU’s shot game with press/leverage rules outside. The Ducks’ young corners and hybrid second-level athletes have meshed quickly; Jerry Mixon (2 INTs) is the middle-of-field problem-solver. His approach: “In man coverage, I keep my eyes on the quarterback… offenses don’t expect linebackers to make plays in coverage.” Theran Johnson returned at corner (“winning football… we went back to the basics—tackling and little things”) and the edge room—Matayo Uiagalelei, Teitum Tuioti, Nasir Wyatt—has layered production (15.0 TFL, 7.0 sacks as a team).

---

Oregon State, Honestly

Offense

The Beavers are pass-tilted (305.7 yds/gm) behind QB Maalik Murphy (896 yds, 61.6%, 6 TD, 5 INT). Lanning: “One of the strongest arms we’ve seen… delivered a deep ball… really impressive.” The vertical stress comes from WR Trent Walker (23–302; 100.7 yds/gm) and Taz Reddicks (15–213). They’ll hunt outside-the-numbers comebacks, posts, and slot-seam concepts, often off condensed sets and quick play-actions. Protection and run efficiency have lagged: 2.6 yards per rush as a team, with Anthony Hankerson (190 yds) the lead back. Early-down negative plays and sacks (6 allowed) have put OSU behind the chains.

Defense

OSU’s defense has been on the field too long (32:06 TOP) and has yielded 424.3 yds/gm at 6.7 per play. The front shows flashes—Tahjae Mullix (2.5 TFL, 1.0 sack), Thomas Collins (2.0 TFL), Shamar Meikle (2.0 TFL)—but explosive plays and red-zone perfection by opponents (11/12 scores) have been issues. The Beavers have 3 takeaways and a modest pressure profile (15.0 TFL, 2.0 sacks). Explosives allowed on special teams (opponents 25.6 yards per punt return) have compounded field-position stress.

Special Teams

K Caleb Ojeda is 2–4 (long 53). P AJ Winsor averages 39.2, with some short-field variants. Coverage has sprung leaks; Oregon’s own coverage/return units have been steady, and James Ferguson-Reynolds (37.5) has pinned effectively when asked.

---

Health/Depth Notes That Matter

• RB Noah Whittington: Questionable as of Tuesday night (“If he’s ready, we’ll have him out there.” — Lanning).

• WR Dakorien Moore: Potential DNP after being dinged this week; if unavailable, targets tilt more toward Malik Benson (11–161–2), Gary Bryant Jr. (7–77–2), Kenyon Sadiq (5–95–2), and Jeremiah McClellan (5–98).

• Secondary: Theran Johnson is back (“winning football”), and young corners have settled—key versus OSU’s deep shots.

• OL Cohesion: Isaiah World: “This week, it’s about winning the line of scrimmage… the game lives in the trenches.” Oregon’s pass-off skill vs. twists/stunts has been a point of emphasis in practice.

---

Where It Tilts

1. Early-Down Efficiency: Oregon is +3.5 YPP versus opponents (7.0 rush YPC; 9.36 opponent YPA allowed by OSU). If the Ducks run it on schedule and force OSU to chase, the Beavers’ pass-pro becomes high-volume and turnover-prone.

2. Explosives vs. Leverage: OSU can score in chunks with Walker/Reddicks; Oregon’s plan is to protect leverage and let its M.O.F. droppers (Mixon/Boettcher) rob in-breakers. Johnson: “Know your leverage… protect what you’re supposed to protect.”

3. Crowd/Communication: Lanning on Autzen: “This is one where the crowd can make an impact.” OSU had noise issues at Texas Tech; expect silent counts and condensed splits—fertile ground for Oregon’s simulated pressures.

---

Matchups to Watch

• Trent Walker vs. Oregon CBs (Johnson/Offord/Obidegwu): Walker is the downfield battering ram. Oregon must win at the line and cap the route.

• Oregon IOL vs. OSU DL: If the Ducks dent the A/B gaps, the RPO/modular play-action game opens vertical shots and seam work for Sadiq.

• Jerry Mixon vs. Maalik Murphy’s eyes: Mixon’s bait-and-drive technique is tailor-made for a big-armed QB who trusts windows.

• Edge Contain on Hankerson: Limit OSU’s best run source and make the Beavers one-handed.

---

Keys to the Game (Oregon)

1. Win 1st Down (both sides): Avoid third-and-long, force OSU into it.

2. Cap the Go/Post: No free access explosives—make OSU stack drives.

3. Finish: Lanning: “We want to be a team that wins the fourth quarter.” Red-zone touchdowns, four-minute run game.

4. Clean Operation: Keep penalties down (zero last week) and communication sharp. World: “Discipline, next-play mindset.”

---

Players to Know — Oregon State

• QB Maalik Murphy (No. 6): 896 yards, 6 TD; “can throw it on a rope.” If he’s protected, he can stress any coverage vertically.

• WR Trent Walker (No. 7): 23–302 through three; formation-moved shot-taker Lanning singled out (“gave us trouble last year”).

• WR Taz Reddicks (No. 3): Volume chain-mover with after-catch.

• RB Anthony Hankerson (No. 0): 190 rushing yards; their most reliable runner—must have to keep balance.

• DL Thomas Collins (No. 98) / EDGE Tahjae Mullix (No. 15): Disruption leaders; need to win 1-on-1s vs. Oregon’s tackles to alter Moore’s platform.

• DB Skyler Thomas (No. 17): Active second-level tackler; integral to limiting Oregon’s perimeter run game.

---

Oregon X-Factors

• Kenyon Sadiq in the seams and red zone (5–95–2).

• Dierre Hill Jr. as the explosive change-up (161 rush yds, 2 TD; long 66).

• Jerry Mixon manufacturing a possession flip with a M.O.F. theft.

• Crowd noise creating a hidden-yardage avalanche in false starts, delay, protection busts.

---

Intangibles & Mentality

The Ducks have hammered discipline and finish all week. Theran Johnson: “We weren’t happy with the finish… we went back to the basics.” Mixon on the rivalry tone: “It’s a big rivalry game—everybody pops out in Oregon.” Lanning underscored relationships and legacy—fitting for an Autzen return with the Knight/Bowerman tribute—and kept focus laser-tight: “Not really [hard to focus]. When that’s your process… we’re focused on the next one.”

---

Prediction

Oregon’s multiplicity on offense, paired with a re-centered front and leverage-sound back end, is a difficult solve for an OSU team still hunting consistency on the ground and at the line. The Ducks’ early-down success should create a tilt in plays, field position, and explosives—especially if Autzen leans on OSU’s operation. Even if Whittington and/or Dakorien Moore sit, Oregon has answers in the run committee, Sadiq’s hybrid usage, and Benson/Bryant spacing.

Oregon 49, Oregon State 13.
(The Ducks cover the 35.5 with a fourth-quarter close that hits the week’s “finish” emphasis.)