There is a temptation after a 21-10 loss to Illinois to look at Oregon’s 426 yards of offense and assume the numbers somehow make the performance look better than it actually was. The more revealing conclusion is almost the opposite. The advanced numbers make the loss stranger, and in some ways more damning, because this was not an afternoon in which Oregon simply could not move the football.
The Ducks moved it. They actually generated successful plays at a considerably higher rate than Illinois, ran the football efficiently and produced more explosive plays. They gained 112 more yards, ran 15 more offensive snaps and finished with six more first downs. Oregon’s defense held Illinois to 89 passing yards and a negative EPA-per-play performance in multiple public models.
And yet Oregon lost by 11, which is precisely why this game requires a deeper audit. The Ducks did enough between the moments that mattered to create the appearance of a functioning football team, then repeatedly failed when individual plays acquired additional value. The result was 426 yards that became 10 points.
The public advanced models vary somewhat in their EPA methodology. TEMPO calculated Oregon at
